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Activity Drops As Rates Hit 20 Year High

The local real estate market saw some significant changes in September 2023, as indicated by our latest data. We saw big drops in listings added and closings, while the net impact caused supply to hold relatively steady. Read on for the key metrics and trends we see emerging in the most recent Rutherford County real estate statistics.

Listings Added -24% YOY; -11% MOM

One of the standout trends in the Rutherford County real estate market is the notable decrease in listings added. Year-over-year (YOY), there has been a 24% decline, while month-over-month (MOM) data shows an 11% drop. This reduction in new listings suggests a potential tightening of the market and may lead to increased competition among buyers for the available properties.

Contracts +1% YOY; -9% MOM

The number of contracts in September 2023 increased slightly compared to the previous year, with a 1% year-over-year rise. However, there was a 9% decrease in contracts on a month-over-month basis. This suggests that while buyers are still active, they may be taking a more cautious approach in the short term with rates at a 20 year high. More on that later.

Closings -20% YOY; -15% MOM

Closings in the Rutherford County market have experienced a significant drop, with a 20% decline year-over-year and a 15% decrease month-over-month. This reduction in closed transactions may be a reflection of the challenges faced by buyers and sellers in the current market conditions. While buyer demand is still strong, many buyers without an immediate need are waiting to see what happens next with interest rates.

Median Sale Price/Sq.Ft. is $213 -2.29% YOY; -1% MOM

In September, the median sale price per square foot in Rutherford County was $213. While that is a 2.29% decrease compared to the previous year and a 1% decline on a monthly basis, it’s important to note that we are still only 5.33% off the June 2022 record number of $225 and up 3.9% from December.

Avg. Daily Inventory -11% YOY, -0.5% MOM

Daily inventory has decreased by 11% year-over-year and by 0.5% month-over-month. This decline in inventory could further intensify competition among buyers, potentially putting upward pressure on prices in the future when interest rates soften and put more pent up demand back marketplace.

Absorption Rates held relatively steady across the board

  • $700K+ jumped from 3.5 to 3.9 months supply

Absorption rates, which measure how long it would take to sell the current inventory, have remained relatively steady for most price ranges. However, homes priced at $700,000 and above have seen a slight increase in supply, rising from 3.5 to 3.9 months.

Interest Rates at 7.49%; Highest Since Dec. 2002

One significant factor affecting the Rutherford County real estate market is current mortgage interest rates, which stand at 7.49%. This is the highest interest rate seen since December 2002. While this impacts affordability for many buyers, we’re still seeing some savvy buyers take advantage of the decreased competitions and builder/lender incentives to buy-down their rates, in anticipation of refinancing once rates improve.

So What’s All This Mean?

The Rutherford County real estate market is currently experiencing a shift in dynamics. While there has been a decrease in listings added and closings, supply levels have effectively increased, potentially stabilizing prices… for now. Interest rates, at their highest in years, are also a noteworthy factor. The market is a moment in time, and with changing conditions daily it’s important to stay informed and work closely with a knowledgable real estate professional to navigate these evolving market conditions.

If you’ve made it this far, it’s clear you are keenly interested in staying informed about what is happening in the local Rutherford County real estate market. Please consider following @murfreesbororealestate on InstagramTikTok & YouTube for more on market conditions and numerous other real estate topics. As always, if you need any assistance, you can always contact John Jones Real Estate at 615-867-3020 to put our LOCAL market expertise to work for you. It would be our pleasure to serve you.

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John Jones

During his 30 years in real estate, John has helped more than 7,500 families handle their real estate needs. Nobody has sold more homes in Rutherford County than John and there is not even a close second. Before opening his own brokerage, John Jones was a perennial top producer for Coldwell Banker from 1998 to 2008, consistently ranking among the top 1% of agents in the nation. In October of 2008, John realized his vision of a small boutique real estate firm that offers the best in customer service, market knowledge, wealth building opportunities, and innovative techniques that get homes sold. Offering several revolutionary programs to his clients such as the Guaranteed Sale Program, Instant Offer, and the Fixer-Upper program, John and his team continue to perennially set production records, with 560 units sold and over $185,000,000 in volume in 2020. Those numbers again put the company's agent average at the top of both the Rutherford County and greater Nashville rankings.

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