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Is The Local Real Estate Market Peaking?

May brought some interesting developments in the Rutherford County real estate market. Closed Sales rose just 1% from last May, while Pending Sales are down significantly by 17%. Inventory increased by 9%, now with over 1,000 homes on the market (daily average), the first time we’ve seen that since November 2022. Median Price Per Square Foot jumped 3.3% to $219, matching the second highest month ever (July 2022). Read on for our in-depth look at the most current local market data.

There’s a major point of concern when we look at the broader picture of the May 2024 local market data, with Inventory up and Contracts down, while prices are still going up. Meanwhile, interest rates are coming down, now under 7% (30-Yr FRM) as we enter what is seasonally Rutherford County’s peak time for home sales almost every year on record. What’s this mean? It means with the pent up demand poised to release at any moment, we’re likely to see prices continue to rise through the summer months as more buyers enter the market, potentially eclipsing the record $222 Median Price Per Square Foot in June 2022.

Year-to-date, Closed Sales are down 6.47%, but if you consider that we spent the first half of 2023 in an environment where rates were in the low sixes, that’s really not that far off. Interest rates have been all over the place this year. In May, they hit around 7.25%, which slowed things down in what is traditionally the beginning of the peak season for sales in our area. But now that rates are dipping into the high sixes (around 6.875% as of this writing), we’re beginning to see more buyer interest. Many predictions, based on inflation data and the 10-year treasury, suggest that the 30-year mortgage rate might fall to 6.25% by the end of the year. This would open the door to thousands more buyers in our local market, again putting a strain on Inventory and launching prices into a new stratosphere.

All that to say, Rutherford County’s real estate market, while not quite at the record peak yet, is on the trajectory to eclipse that mark this summer, and then ride that momentum onto new heights as we head towards 2025. So buckle your seat belts, ladies and gentlemen. This real estate market is about to take us on another wild ride. Maybe not the ride of 2021, when the crazy influx of buyers ate up the local housing inventory almost overnight, and appreciation shot up 50% in short order. No, this ride is going to be more sensible, but no less noteworthy. This ride is the new normal. That is, until demand stabilizes on its own, not by the forced hand of rates skyrocketing, and that could be a while.

If you are interested in staying informed about what is happening in the local Rutherford County real estate market going forward, please consider following @murfreesbororealestate on InstagramTikTok & YouTube for more on market conditions and numerous other real estate topics.

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John Jones

During his 30 years in real estate, John has helped more than 7,500 families handle their real estate needs. Nobody has sold more homes in Rutherford County than John and there is not even a close second. Before opening his own brokerage, John Jones was a perennial top producer for Coldwell Banker from 1998 to 2008, consistently ranking among the top 1% of agents in the nation. In October of 2008, John realized his vision of a small boutique real estate firm that offers the best in customer service, market knowledge, wealth building opportunities, and innovative techniques that get homes sold. Offering several revolutionary programs to his clients such as the Guaranteed Sale Program, Instant Offer, and the Fixer-Upper program, John and his team continue to perennially set production records, with 560 units sold and over $185,000,000 in volume in 2020. Those numbers again put the company's agent average at the top of both the Rutherford County and greater Nashville rankings.

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